First Goal and Penalty Predictions Explained

These are two of the simplest-looking predictions on ScoreHub, and both are about a single moment in the match. One is about the very first goal. The other is about whether the referee points to the penalty spot.

Despite the name, First Goal Scorer is not about an individual player. You are not choosing a striker. You are choosing a team: Home or Away. If the home side scores the opening goal, Home is correct. If the visitors score it, Away is correct.

Penalty Awarded is also simple to state. Yes is correct if at least one penalty is awarded. No is correct if none is.

First Goal Scorer

Look at the opening goal of the match and ask which team it counted for. Own goals count for the team credited on the official scoreline, so if a defender puts the ball into his own net to open the scoring, the goal belongs to the opposing team.

A match that ends 0–0 has no first goal at all, so neither Home nor Away can be said to have scored it. This guide does not make a claim about how that case is settled. Check the ScoreHub game rules for how a 0–0 is handled before you rely on this market in a match you expect to be goalless.

Penalty Awarded

Yes is correct if a penalty is awarded in the match. Extra time counts when it is played. Penalty shootout kicks never count as goals, so a shootout does not make Yes correct by itself.

In that match, First Goal Scorer is Away, Penalty Awarded is Yes, and the match result is a home win. The three predictions point in different directions, and all three can be right at once. That is worth remembering when you think about how the markets relate.

Picking the team that will score first is harder than it sounds. A better team is more likely to score first, but only a little more likely than a weaker team that gets lucky. You are trying to find an edge, not certainty.

Form in first goals

Some teams score first regularly and others tend to fall behind. Look at the last five or six matches for each side and ask how often they opened the scoring and how often they conceded first. A team that has scored first in most of its recent home matches is a sensible Home candidate.

Early-game tempo

Some teams start fast and press hard from the first whistle. Others start cautiously and play themselves in. If one side starts quickly and the other is slow to settle, the fast starter has an edge in the opening exchanges. Two cautious teams may not score until late, which makes the first goal harder to call.

Set pieces

A surprising number of opening goals come from corners, free kicks and long throws. A team that is dangerous from set pieces, facing a side that defends them poorly, has a route to the first goal even if open play is even.

Home advantage

The home side has a crowd behind it and familiar surroundings, which tends to help in the early minutes. That is a small nudge, not a guarantee. A strong visiting team can still open the scoring.

Because it is one moment, First Goal Scorer is harder than the match result. For a result you need to judge ninety minutes of play. For the first goal, you need the team that happens to score once before the other team does, which can come down to a single chance. The market rewards 8 points to either team in the current scoring schedule, compared with 10 for a Match Result.

Penalty Awarded is about a rare event, and the points reflect it. In the current scoring schedule, Yes is worth 17 and No is worth 4. A big gap like that tells you the game treats Yes as the harder prediction and No as the more likely outcome in most matches. It is a signal, not a rule for every fixture.

• ●The referee. Some referees award penalties more readily than others. If the appointed referee is known, look at his past matches.
• ●VAR. When video review is in use, clear fouls in the box that the referee missed can be corrected, which may add penalties. Check whether the competition uses it.
• ●Style of play. Teams that dribble and play quick passes into the box create more contact than teams that mainly play long balls or shoot from distance.
• ●Box entries. A side that gets the ball into the penalty area often gives defenders more chances to make mistakes.
• ●Defensive style. Defenders who tackle aggressively inside the box are more likely to concede a penalty.
• ●Match stakes. Tense, high-pressure matches tend to produce more contact in crowded areas.

None of these makes a penalty likely on its own. You are looking for a combination: an attacking team that enters the box often, a defence that is physical and error-prone, and a referee or VAR environment that gives penalties readily.

When No is the sensible choice

If neither team creates much inside the box, or the match looks cautious and low in chances, No is a natural call. It pays fewer points, but it fits a match with little contact in the penalty area.

When Yes is worth a thought

Yes is worth considering when you have a specific reason: a dribbling forward against a defender prone to lunging, a referee with a clear record, or a match with a lot of attacking pressure on one goal. Without such a reason, Yes is a hope rather than a prediction.

On ScoreHub, an entry can be a single selection or a stack of 2 to 5 selections from the same fixture. First Goal Scorer and Penalty Awarded can both be part of one. Every selection in a stack must be right for the entry to earn points.

First Goal Scorer links closely to other goal markets, because it describes the start of the same story. If you expect the home side to score first and win comfortably, those two ideas sit well together. If you pick Home for the first goal and also Away to win, you are describing a comeback, which is possible but needs a clear reason.

Some combinations of selections on the same match are not allowed. The game blocks them so that a stack cannot contain two selections that contradict each other. Read the clash rules before building a stack rather than guessing.

Think too about how many separate things need to go right. Each added selection is another event that has to happen. A stack of First Goal Scorer, Penalty Awarded and a result is three things at once. The stack can pay more, but a wrong selection costs half of the entry's potential points.

Penalty Awarded is also worth thinking about alongside the first goal. A penalty is one of the ways the first goal can arrive, so the two ideas are connected, but they do not require each other. A penalty can be awarded in a match whose first goal came from open play, and the first goal can come without any penalty being awarded.

• ●Thinking First Goal Scorer is about a player. It is about which team scores first.
• ●Assuming the better team will score first. Better teams do so more often, but one early chance can change it.
• ●Picking First Goal Scorer in a match you expect to be goalless without checking the game rules for a 0–0.
• ●Thinking Penalty Awarded needs the penalty to be scored. Awarded is enough.
• ●Choosing Yes on penalties because the points are high, without any reason to expect one.
• ●Ignoring the referee, who is one of the clearest influences on penalties.
• ●Treating the first goal as a measure of who will win. It is one goal, not the whole match.

The common thread is treating a single moment as if it were a full result. Both markets depend on specific events. A plain, evidence-based reason beats a hunch every time.

In the current scoring schedule, a correct First Goal Scorer prediction is worth 8 points for Home and 8 for Away. A correct Penalty Awarded prediction is worth 17 for Yes and 4 for No. For comparison, a correct Match Result is worth 10 and Over/Under 2.5 goals is worth 8.

Predictions lock at kickoff, and some fixtures lock up to 5 minutes earlier. If a match is cancelled, predictions are void. If it is postponed, they are void and you predict again for the new fixture. If it is abandoned after kickoff, all predictions are void. MatchHub is the settlement source of truth, and if official data is corrected, points can be recalculated.

ScoreHub is a free prediction game, played for points. Read the full game rules for how each case is handled.